Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 12.381472 14.153986 16.075564 18.311592 20.840117 23.608839 26.868484
2024-11-03 9.951485 12.367708 15.195931 18.743165 23.065422 28.152872 34.587034
2024-11-10 8.727160 11.439121 14.771745 19.153869 24.748923 31.637006 40.742652
2024-11-17 7.537129 10.360588 13.983875 18.952075 25.562454 34.027747 45.659792
2024-11-24 6.564246 9.406793 13.195137 18.582325 26.010524 35.851745 49.831029
2024-12-01 5.904329 8.786141 12.760240 18.599891 26.913674 38.267359 54.878975
2024-12-08 5.445018 8.386459 12.570989 18.905663 28.189059 41.218503 60.795583
2024-12-15 5.005127 7.962850 12.295326 19.039390 29.193406 43.812198 66.326050
2024-12-22 4.547794 7.463194 11.854552 18.874216 29.717813 45.710170 70.920073
2024-12-29 4.231661 7.148717 11.658492 19.047793 30.737328 48.366008 76.759673
2025-01-05 4.049971 7.029039 11.747516 19.657938 32.450329 52.143037 84.495408
2025-01-12 3.721500 6.636629 11.367307 19.482117 32.896518 53.973979 89.289396
2025-01-19 3.245933 5.960196 10.481358 18.429781 31.881441 53.484165 90.445722
2025-01-26 3.091957 5.826901 10.489225 18.866136 33.340063 57.035982 98.332216
2025-02-02 2.948490 5.697246 10.488538 19.278667 34.770872 60.603798 106.420794
2025-02-09 2.719378 5.390218 10.152291 19.075864 35.122499 62.381061 111.589544
2025-02-16 2.487643 5.056764 9.740986 18.703748 35.142265 63.579203 115.811651
2025-02-23 2.332591 4.855711 9.553909 18.721449 35.849801 65.988873 122.250622
2025-03-02 2.228892 4.745650 9.526286 19.029104 37.096486 69.401151 130.628750
2025-03-09 2.111250 4.597047 9.413128 19.163661 38.024590 72.285175 138.198950
2025-03-16 1.967545 4.382260 9.154842 18.997465 38.369425 74.120327 143.939850
2025-03-23 1.873643 4.263039 9.074927 19.172115 39.370305 77.202206 152.126457
2025-03-30 1.832377 4.252480 9.211616 19.786029 41.258344 82.029709 163.822026